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全球经济正处在“微妙节点” IMF警示面临多重风险

2019-07-24 20:49:07     来源:中新网     责任编辑:刘欣

  国际货币基金组织(IMF)23日下调全球经济增长预期,警告全球经济面临贸易和技术紧张局势升级等多重风险,并呼吁各国政策制定者合作应对多边贸易体系面临的问题。

  全球经济增长乏力

  IMF在当天公布的《世界经济展望报告》更新内容中说,全球经济增长势头乏力,各经济体发布的国内生产总值和通胀数据表明全球经济活动不及预期。具体来说,全球经济低迷体现在最终需求疲软、全球贸易疲软、通胀低迷、政策信号不一致和避险情绪升温等方面。

  IMF指出,自四月份上次报告发布以来,全球经济下行风险加剧。主要风险源包括贸易和技术紧张局势升级、全球避险情绪升温、通货紧缩压力加剧、地缘政治局势紧张等。

  IMF首席经济学家吉塔·戈皮纳特当天在发布会上表示,贸易和技术紧张局势升级会严重扰乱全球产业链,这是全球经济前景面临的首要风险。

  在全球经济面临多重风险背景下,IMF预计今明两年世界经济增速分别为3.2%和3.5%,较4月份的预测值均下调0.1个百分点。同时,IMF还将今年全球贸易额增速预期大幅下调0.9个百分点至2.5%,远低于去年的3.7%。

  政策与内需助力中国稳健增长

  IMF研究部副主管吉安·玛丽亚·米莱西-费雷蒂对新华社记者说,中国经济的重要积极因素是政府有能力保障宏观经济稳定。耶鲁大学高级研究员斯蒂芬·罗奇也表示,中国有足够政策空间继续应对当前经济增长所面临的下行风险。

  除宏观政策对经济的提振作用外,IMF还注意到中国经济的内部再平衡取得进展,即经济增长更多由消费而非投资和出口驱动,这令中国经济在应对外部冲击时的韧性进一步增强。

  戈皮纳特表示,IMF期待中国继续依靠国内消费驱动经济增长,减少信贷依赖,并鼓励私营部门更多参与到经济活动中。

  麦肯锡公司近期发布的一项研究显示,截至2018年12月的16个季度中,有11个季度消费对中国经济增长的贡献率超过了60%。麦肯锡亚洲区董事长奥利弗·汤比认为,中国正在打造更强劲、更多样化的经济。

  合作解决经贸争端

  IMF建议,各国应强化以规则为导向的多边贸易体系,包括利用运转良好的世贸组织争端解决机制来维护现行世贸组织规则。

  IMF警告,虽然贸易和技术紧张局势在6月份有所缓解,但要达成解决分歧的长期协议可能仍须展开持久和艰难的谈判;若事态转向不利方向发展,如美国挑起的中美贸易摩擦升级、美国对进口汽车加征关税或英国无协议脱欧,将打击市场信心、削弱投资、扰乱全球供应链,并导致全球经济增长严重放缓。

  IMF指出,当前各国在多边层面迫切的任务是缓解贸易和技术紧张局势,尽快解决与贸易相关的不确定性。各国政策制定者应当合作应对多边贸易体系面临的问题。

  戈皮纳特认为,全球经济正处在“微妙节点”,各国应停止通过加征关税的方式来解决双边贸易问题和国际争端。

  新华社记者 杨承霖

  参与记者:尹南、张笑然

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